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12 Jul

BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 name fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favourite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and I will get a fantastic amount of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest cash game punt of time in $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and when we are getting 5-rounds from JJ using the striking volume she puts out then we have a good flooring there also and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that cost she allows you to cover up for a few heavy favorites and if we can get 4 additional areas to win using a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP drama of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 with this battle. The most likely outcome is that someone in this fight gets knocked out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at one 10-point knock down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to offer you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can’t have a lot of time in the game left. I think we function together with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. I think he’s a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he has never knocked out anybody, so I think we’ve got a good flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does remain standing since I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I think he lands several takedowns in this fight and may win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is becoming bogged up on the toes I am certain that he is going to be going for even more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and that I think he gets a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a few fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t believe she can win, because she for sure could, and I believe she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we would require a finish from her in this struggle to receive 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to rely all of her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points and that was contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still wouldn’t be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her 8.7k price label. I think if you’re earning 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and give my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my select forecasts, you can find that for only $7.99 on this link below:

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